The Pitino Decision

As with seemingly most topics in our country now, almost every view I read on Richard Pitino is polarized. Either it's "ludicrous" that anyone should even think of wanting him gone, or it's equally crazy to think the Gophers should keep him.

As unpopular as it may be, I would like to take a more balanced approach to this question and examine the data, the pros and cons and try to make an educated opinion that will certainly upset at least half the people reading this and probably more.

As this analysis was (way) too long for a tweet thread, I started a blog. I'm not sure if I will ever blog again after this post but who knows, maybe this is a new thing. I do enjoy writing and using sports to procrastinate on my professional endeavors, so this combines two of my passions.

Just the Facts

Before we get to the pros and cons, let's take a look at the numbers. The Gophers have had three coaches since our lord and savior Clem Haskins, who had magical seasons including Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight appearances in '89-90 and of course the now-vacated but never forgotten Final Four in '97. Clem had six NCAA Tournament appearances in 13 seasons, and even two NIT championships which he barely bragged about. It was indeed the best of times for Gopher basketball fans, until it wasn't.

Clem "The Gem" Haskins

As it turned out, Clem was cheating, specifically in the area of academic fraud. Some say it was standard practice at the time, that North Carolina has done worse since and gone unpunished for it, that the Gophers were made an example of by the NCAA because they were an easy non-blue-blood target.

You may be right in all those things, but for purposes of judging Richard Pitino I don't think we can hold him up to the Haskins on-court standard. From all appearances Richard runs a clean program in which players go to class, write their own papers and don't get paid $100K to attend a certain shoe company-sponsored school. Those are all good things, but they probably put him at some disadvantage in today's environment.

So what are we left with for comparatives? Do we go back as far as Jim Dutcher in the late 70s and early 80s? That's a tough comp since the NCAA Tournament only had 32 teams in his era, so tourney appearances are apples-to-oranges. Dutch also didn't have the post-Haskins scandal hangover to deal with, though I would hope that isn't still an excuse 20 years on.

Jim Dutcher, B1G Coach of the Year 1981-82

So that leaves just the three post-Haskins era coaches: Dan Monson, Tubby Smith and Richard Pitino. Let's look at the relevant numbers from these three eras, year by year of their regime.

It should be noted that during Monson's entire run and all but one year of Tubby's run, the B1G had 11 teams. Nebraska joined for the 2012-13 season and then Maryland/Rutgers joined for the 2014-15 season. I'm not sure how much more difficult that makes it for Pitino since neither Nebraska nor Rutgers have historically been particularly good at men's basketball, but Maryland is usually good so it's been at least a bit more difficult for Pitino to achieve the same conference standing as Tubby and Monson.

In looking at these numbers what strikes me is how similar they are, with the exception of Monson's 'King of the NIT' record and lack of NCAA Tournament appearances. Keep in mind that Monson had to clean up after the Haskins-era scandal so perhaps he deserves a bit of a break, but not a 7-year break when he was still finishing 10th.

Dan Monson, whom Joel Maturi inexplicably had at the press conference
where he announced Monson was fired

Pitino has also had the advantage of recruiting to new and superior facilities vs Monson and Tubby. As Marcus Fuller recently wrote about in his article for the Star Tribune, both Monson and Tubby lamented the state of facilities and indicated the continually delayed ground breaking on the Athlete's Village during their tenures was a significant recruiting disadvantage.

In summary, I think you can say that Richard Pitino's performance to date is essentially on par with the two previous coaches, both of whom were fired at about this same time in their tenure (after Year 6 for Tubby, start of Year 8 for Monson).

Another point of interest is that neither Monson nor Tubby went on to great success elsewhere. Monson has found a nice 13-year home at Long Beach State with up-and-down results, winning three Big West Conference Championships from 2011-13 with one NCAA Tournament appearance (a 1st round loss). Tubby has jumped around from Texas Tech to Memphis to High Point in just six seasons, never finishing higher than 5th in the respective Conference.

Tubby Smith, trying to act excited about being the new coach at High Point

So why keep Richard Pitino, you ask? Is he not held to the same standard? Or has the standard been too high and we should accept 8th or 9th place finishes as the norm, with an occasional 1 or 2 game NCAA tournament run as the cherry on top?

Or has Richard had mitigating circumstances and have some go-forward momentum that begs for more time? Let's dive into the nuances of those questions.

Does Richard Pitino (RP) have Recruiting Momentum (RM)?

It stands to reason that if RP has RM then he should perhaps be given more time to bring that Mo' to fruition. Let's take a look at Pitino's recruiting rankings in the B1G and Nationally by year (source: 247sports).

What we see is that Pitino has averaged an 8th ranked recruiting class in the B1G, and as we saw above he has averaged a 9th place finish in the B1G. Not so surprisingly, recruiting rankings matter and over time you more or less get what you recruit.

A big reason Pitino finds himself on the hot seat now is because of the 2016 and '17 classes, which were supposed to be Seniors and Juniors at this point. Instead we have only Michael Hurt available from the 2016 class after Coffey left early and Curry has struggled with injuries, and we have nobody left from the 2017 class with Isaiah Washington now at Iona and Jamir Harris now at American University. Unless you're Duke or Kentucky, it's tough to win with only Freshmen and Sophomores playing regular minutes (plus Demir as a senior transfer).

2016-17 Recruiting Lone Gun: Michael Hurt

Do we see any momentum here more recently? Perhaps a bit - Pitino's highest ranked recruiting class came just last year (the class that is now Freshmen ex-Demir). Certainly we've seen flashes from Ihnen who was the 4-star in the group, along with some positives from Tre Williams. We haven't seen much of Freeman or Greenlee yet.

Assuming Oturu leaves after this season, it looks to me like the Gophers will have another bubble tournament team next season. If the 2018, '19 and '20 classes come to fruition from there, perhaps the Gophers might be ready to make a more legitimate tournament run in the 2021-22 season.

Does any of this suggest that the Gophers will threaten for a B1G Championship or a tourney run past the Sweet Sixteen in any near years? Unfortunately the answer right now is no, but things can always change with the emergence of a couple of players like Ihnen and Mashburn as true stars, or if Kerwin Walton signs then maybe the Mashburn-Ihnen-Walton combo turns out to be Bobby Jackson-Sam Jacobson-John Thomas-esque?

Jamal Mashburn Jr. / Martice Mitchell

What about local recruiting?

Much has been made of the recent dearth of local MN recruits choosing Minnesota. But does it even matter? So long as Pitino gets good players from elsewhere, what's the difference?

The conventional wisdom on Twitter seems to be that getting local players doesn't matter AT ALL so long as equally good players are gotten from other states. I would argue that is not entirely true, and it also presupposes that those equally good players are being gotten from other states, which also does not seem to be true.

But let's start with talent alone, and it is clear that Minnesota has recently had an unprecedented run of high level recruiting talent. As the chart below shows, the last four years have produced an historically high number of 4 and 5-star recruits, at least as far back as the online database goes (source: 247sports), with eleven 4-stars and three 5-stars in the last four years.

Unfortunately, Pitino has been able to capture only one of those 14 local highest-end players in the last four years, that being Daniel Oturu who was a 4-star recruit (I would still rather have Oturu than the 5-star from that 2018 class, Tre Jones, but that's beside the point). There is still some hope that Kerwin Walton, a 4-star in the 2020 class, may sign with the Gophers so I will keep Kerwin in my prayers and I ask you to do the same.

Meanwhile, Pitino signed seven 3-star recruits, four 4-star recruits and zero 5-star recruits in that same 2017-20 period (again pending Walton). So at least according to the recruiting rankings, Pitino has not been able to replace the home-grown talent with equal talent from other states.

To be fair, I don't think anyone believes Pitino should be signing every home state player. Of course some players want to go elsewhere and if they have a chance to play for a legend like Mike Krzyzewski at Duke or get a Top 5 education at Stanford, that has to be respected. Nor should local players be denigrated for going anywhere else no matter where it is. It's their choice, their future and anyone verbally attacking them on social media or otherwise for it is a flat-out loser. Please don't be mad, just be disappointed.

Mike Krzyzewski, knowing he signed another 5-star player away from Minnesota

What is disappointing is that players are not just leaving for the strictly blue-blood pastures, but for schools such as (dang it) border rival Wisconsin, which signed three 4-star recruits from MN in 2017-2020. We've also seen departures to Marquette, Gonzaga, Arizona, Texas and Indiana.

Beyond just the signings, some of the semantics haven't been great either. In-state players signing elsewhere often gets waved off as, "they just want to get away from home and try something new." Perhaps some do, but in the case of 2020 5-star Jalen Suggs when asked about why not Minnesota, his response was, "the basketball side kind of fell off. Football-wise, I think P.J. fleck is one of the best coaches in the country. I love him. But basketball just didn't match what I wanted it to be." Ouch, that hurts.

But let's say for a moment that Pitino had signed equal talent from other states, then would it matter? Conventional wisdom these days seems to say no, but I would say yes. Why?

1. Perception matters -- Minnesota-raised players are more likely to grow up as Gophers fans. Even if not, they have more access to the Gophers coaches, players and staff than they do for any other D-1 University simply because they are in the same town. They can take more unofficial visits, go to games, see the staff in person more frequently, develop relationships beyond what they could at any other school. So what does it say when the vast majority of these recruits who got an extra-close look at the program opt to go elsewhere? Deservedly or not, part of what it says is Minnesota wasn't good enough; perhaps relationships weren't built up enough or perhaps belief in the team going in the right direction wasn't strong enough. If that perception matters at all to other recruits or to ticket-and-apparel buying fans, then it's a disadvantage to the program.

Kerwin Walton: A New Hope?

2. Provincialism -- Minnesota has always been labeled a provincial place. Minnesotans take pride in our state, in all the top rankings we get in quality of life, education, fitness, and in our Minnesota celebrities and sports figures who make good. Bud Grant is an icon in Minnesota not just because he was a winner, but because he embodied the Viking culture of Minnesota. He wore short sleeves in sub-zero temps, he went fishing "up north" in the offseason, and yes, he attended the University of Minnesota as a three sport athlete. Lindsay Whalen has inspired a generation of girls basketball players (or perhaps just girls, no qualifier) because she too stuck around, led the home town team to the Final Four for the first time, led the Lynx to Championships and now coaches the Gophers.

To say that these types of stories don't matter to us (and by us I mean Minnesotans, sports and Gophers fans) is just not addressing reality. We love these stories and we desire more of them. Do we get a similar thrill when cheering on players from out of state? Of course we do, and I won't yell any less loudly or be any less interested in their back stories. I will hope they stick around and become Minnesotan too. But there's a reason "home town kid makes good" is a synopsis of many Hollywood movies, it's an undeniable hook and just a lot of fun.

'Hometown Boy Makes Good' starring Anthony Edwards -- you saw this one, right?

3. Ticket Sales -- There is a marketing adage that says, "people make decisions emotionally and justify them rationally". That's why ticket sales go up when teams are winning. People crave that positive emotional feeling of supporting a winning team, of being "part of it" and identifying themselves with a winning culture. Hell I know I do. But aren't the stories spoken to in #2 above also a positive emotional high? Wouldn't those also potentially influence ticket sales to some degree?

When the Gophers women's team were playing well in what would ultimately result in the Final Four appearance of 2004, they had to move games from the Sports Pavilion over to Williams Arena because the demand for tickets was so high. They ended up selling out Williams Arena too. Was that really just because they were having a good season, or was it also because it was native Minnesotan Lindsay Whalen leading the charge for that good team? How many glowing stories about Lindsay and Hutchinson were written in those years because writers knew it was a guaranteed hook, and how much more favorable interest was brought to the program as a result?

Five Minutes of Lindsay Whalen reducing Duke to tears in the Elite Eight

In summary, I would argue that successful recruiting of local high school talent does matter, and it matters beyond just the talent level that they represent. It's a matter of perception and emotion that can ultimately beget a higher level of success and incoming dollars to the Athletic Department. Pitino has not been good enough (yet) on this front, and certainly he's heard that from the fans.

Is Richard Pitino a good Xs and Os Coach?

How would I know, I've never been a coach and don't pretend to be a great basketball mind, but I certainly lean toward believing he is. He grew up around one of the greatest basketball coaches of all time, his father Rick Pitino. He also worked for Billy Donovan, a national championship winning coach. People always talk about how "coaches kids" are smart, they have high basketball IQ. Why would this be any different? Someone smarter than me will have to prove otherwise before I will believe Richard is anything but a good game coach.

Pretty sure Rick thought he won the 2014 NIT Championship, but actually it was Richard

Pitino is relatively young and I'm sure still learning, but that's what the Gophers signed up for when they hired him, i.e. a young coach they could grow with and that could potentially be here for decades if successful. It's the main reason I'm not a fan of going after someone like John Beilein. Yes his pedigree is wonderful but he will be 68 years old by the time next season begins. Maybe he's the next Bill Snyder and has 10 more years in him, but it's a short-term solution to a long-term problem. I would prefer someone like Richard that, if successful, could be "our guy" for a long time, and frankly that wasn't going to ultimately be identified with another B1G school.

Is Richard Pitino a good man who embraces the Gophers and Minnesota community?

Undoubtedly yes. For an east coast-raised guy, he has made every effort to embrace the quirk and seasonal challenges of Minnesota culture. He has made himself available and open to Minnesota media and in turn has given fans a much closer view to his thoughts on the program and his life than most coaches do.

What did we really know about Tubby Smith? He mostly deigned to speak to the media and didn't tell us much when he did. Coach Pitino seemingly takes every media appearance with good cheer, is active on Twitter, and possesses a quick wit and good-natured sarcasm that I think most fans enjoy. He is raising a family here including some "one of us" Minnesota-born children and doesn't seem to be complaining much about it. He has repeatedly said he will "be here as long as they want me" without any serious flirting with other schools even after a successful season. If Kentucky called would he pick up the phone? Of course he would, but thus far he's been about as loyal as a D-1 basketball coach can be expected to be.

Just got a little dusty in here

That last bit is why it's so hard, at least for me, to contemplate saying goodbye to Coach Pitino. I've cheered for his success every step of the way. I've wanted him to be our Tom Izzo, to retire here in another two or three decades after a long and prosperous run. Maybe it could still happen, maybe not, which leads us to....

Should the Gophers retain Richard Pitino beyond the 2019-20 season?

First of all if you are still reading this then I salute you, for you are truly gentlepersons and scholars. I hope I don't disappoint you when after all this I don't have a definitive answer for you in terms of a YES or NO. What I would say is:

1. We have the right person in charge of making this decision. Mark Coyle has been a wizard to date in making coaching decisions, from hiring P.J. Fleck, Lindsay Whalen and Jessica Alistair to retaining good coaches at reasonable prices. I trust Mark Coyle's judgement on this decision more than I would trust any previous Gophers AD in my lifetime.

Mark Coyle batting 1.000 so far, can he keep the streak alive?

2. Among the considerations is the inevitable step-back in performance created by pushing the reset button. Any coaching change typically carries a cost of at least two years worth of serious losing. Roster upheaval, changes in systems and styles of play, changes in culture, the weeding out of those "not on board" and the influx of new but young talent that takes time to mature, all play a role in creating a couple of down years. Fred Hoiberg may be a great coach but in his first year at Nebraska he's in last place in the B1G. The question is whether that losing loop is really preferable to sticking with Pitino.

3. Much of it probably comes down to the age old question of, "who else can we get?" Mark Coyle is renowned for having a list of potential coaches ready to go at all times. Who does he have on the men's basketball coaching list? Can he sell the Gophers program to the best coaches on that list, or is the history of mediocrity too heavy an anchor on his pitch?

In final summary, I can see both sides of this equation which I'm sure upsets most people who have picked one side or the other. I'm going to trust Mark Coyle to make this decision and I'll be all in no matter what it is, because always and foremost I support the Gophers and the University of Minnesota. I will fervently hope for the best and unsuccessfully try to harden my heart against the worst, as every good Gopher fan does.

Ski-U-Mah my friends, Ski-U-Mah.